Fiscal trajectory
All 16 modern US presidents ranked by their net score on this single sub-criterion. Good and harm are scored 0–10 independently; net is good minus harm. Click a name for the full scorecard.
Four consecutive budget surpluses (FY1998-2001), first since 1969. Debt-to-GDP fell from ~63% (1993) to ~55% (2001). OBRA 1993 + 1990 PAYGO + tech boom + spending restraint.
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- good·Tier 1·Primary document·Unverified
OBRA 1993 raised top marginal rate to 39.6% and increased gasoline tax, combined with PAYGO discipline and tech-boom revenue produced four consecutive surpluses (FY1998-2001).
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Balanced budgets in FY1956, 1957, 1960. Debt-to-GDP fell from ~70% to ~55%. Among the strongest fiscal records of the modern era.
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- good·Tier 1·Statistic·Unverified
Eisenhower achieved balanced budgets in three of eight fiscal years and reduced debt-to-GDP ratio by ~15 percentage points.
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Federal debt fell in nominal terms (~$260B to ~$266B) and dramatically in debt-to-GDP terms (120% to ~70%) during boom years. Korean War partially reversed end-of-term.
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- good·Tier 1·Statistic·Unverified
Debt-to-GDP ratio fell from ~120% (1945) to ~70% (1953), driven by GDP growth rather than debt reduction — exceptional fiscal trajectory.
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1990 budget agreement raised taxes and created pay-as-you-go rules. Set up 1990s fiscal consolidation. Politically costly ('read my lips').
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- good·Tier 1·Primary document·Unverified
1990 budget deal created pay-as-you-go rules that helped enable the 1990s deficit reduction and eventual budget surpluses.
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Modest deficits during recovery years. Debt-to-GDP continued declining from ~55% to ~50%.
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- good·Tier 1·Statistic·Unverified
Debt-to-GDP fell modestly during Kennedy term despite tax-cut planning; strong economy held fiscal trajectory positive.
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Deficits remained large from inherited stagflation. Tax Reduction Act 1975 added stimulus.
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- harm·Tier 2·Statistic·Unverified
Federal deficits remained large under Ford due to recession-era stimulus and continued inflation pressure.
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Deficits modest. Inflation eroded debt-to-GDP. Major spending program restraint.
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- good·Tier 1·Statistic·Unverified
Federal deficits remained moderate under Carter; debt-to-GDP held roughly stable at ~33%.
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Closed gold window August 15, 1971 ending Bretton Woods fixed-exchange-rate system. Deficits returned. Wage-price controls (Aug 1971-Apr 1974) controversial.
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- harm·Tier 1·Primary document·Unverified
The Nixon Shock ended the Bretton Woods gold standard, restructuring international monetary system; effects on US fiscal trajectory mixed but the structural change was profound.
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Federal debt grew from ~$22B (1933) to ~$260B (1945) — from ~40% of GDP to ~120% of GDP. Era-defensible given Depression and war; scored against fiscal-trajectory criterion at face value.
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- harm·Tier 1·Statistic·Unverified
Federal debt rose from $22.5 billion in 1933 to $258.7 billion in 1945, debt-to-GDP from ~40% to ~120%.
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ARRA $787B stimulus + Great Recession revenue collapse + bailouts produced record $1.4T (2009) deficit. Annual deficit fell to $585B by 2016. Debt rose from $10.6T to $19.9T.
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- harm·Tier 1·Statistic·Unverified
Federal debt nearly doubled during Obama term ($10.6T to $19.9T) due to ARRA stimulus, Great Recession revenue collapse, and continued Bush tax cuts; annual deficit reduced ~60% from peak.
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TCJA extension proposed (deficit expansion). DOGE federal workforce reduction (revenue impact contested). Tariff revenue partial offset. Net fiscal trajectory contested.
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- harm·Tier 1·Primary document·Unverified
Proposed TCJA extension estimated to add $4-5T to federal debt over 10 years per CBO; DOGE federal workforce reductions modest fiscal impact relative to scale.
TCJA extension proposals 2025; DOGE federal workforce reduction
ARP $1.9T + Infrastructure $1.2T + CHIPS $280B + IRA $370B major spending. Federal debt rose from $27.8T to $36T. Annual deficit ~5-7% of GDP. Continued fiscal expansion.
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- harm·Tier 1·Statistic·Unverified
Federal debt rose from $27.8T to ~$36T during Biden term; annual deficits ran ~5-7% of GDP; major spending legislation (ARP, Infrastructure, CHIPS, IRA) totaled ~$3T over multi-year period.
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Guns-and-butter fiscal expansion. Vietnam War + Great Society without commensurate revenue. Surcharge enacted 1968 belatedly. Debt-to-GDP rose modestly but inflation pressure built.
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- harm·Tier 1·Statistic·Unverified
Federal deficit grew from $5.9B (1964) to $25.2B (1968); 1968 surcharge tax came too late to prevent late-1960s inflation buildup.
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TCJA 2017 + COVID-19 spending produced massive deficits. Federal debt rose from $19.9T (Jan 2017) to $27.8T (Jan 2021). Annual deficit reached $3.1T (FY 2020).
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- harm·Tier 1·Statistic·Unverified
Federal debt rose from $19.9T to $27.8T during Trump T1; TCJA reduced revenues by ~$1.5T over 10 years; COVID-19 spending added trillions more.
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Federal debt nearly tripled: ~$994B (1981) to ~$2.85T (1989). Annual deficits ran ~3-6% of GDP throughout term. Largest peacetime fiscal expansion to that point in US history.
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- harm·Tier 1·Statistic·Unverified
Federal debt rose from ~$994 billion to ~$2.85 trillion under Reagan; debt-to-GDP rose from ~33% to ~52% — largest peacetime debt expansion since WWII.
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Inherited budget surplus (2001) → $1.4T deficit (2009). Federal debt rose from $5.7T to $10.6T. Tax cuts + Iraq War + Medicare Part D + TARP without revenue offsets.
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- harm·Tier 1·Statistic·Unverified
Federal debt nearly doubled during GW Bush term ($5.7T to $10.6T); inherited surplus converted to $1.4T deficit; debt-to-GDP rose from ~55% to ~74%.
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